地源热泵BOT项目特许经营期决策模型

Decision Model of Ground Source Heat Pump BOT Project during Franchise Period

针对地源热泵BOT项目特许经营期的决策问题,以某高校地源热泵BOT项目为例,先用净现值法构建数学模型,计算项目特许经营期可行域,再利用博弈论中的Nash讨价还价理论,引入风险分配因子,构建特许经营期计算模型,最后求得特许经营期Nash均衡解。提出的决策模型均衡了项目风险与收益,提高了决策的准确性和合理性,研究结论为地源热泵行业BOT项目特许经营期的决策提供参考。

Aiming at the decision-making problem of the ground source heat pump BOT project during the franchise period,taking the ground source heat pump BOT project of a university as an example,the mathematical model was firstly constructed by using the net present value method to calculate the franchise period feasible area.By using Nash bargaining theory in game theory,the risk distribution factor is introduced,the franchise period calculation model is constructed,and the Nash equilibrium solution of franchise period is obtained.The decision model balances project risks and benefits,and improves the accuracy and rationality of decision making.The research conclusion provides reference for decision making of BOT projects in the concession period of the ground source heat pump industry.