近40年邢台地区干旱灾害致灾因子危险性评估

Risk Assessment of Drought Disaster Causing Factors in Xingtai Area in Recent 40 Years

依据1980—2019年邢台地区降水、气温等数据,计算得出逐日气象干旱综合指数(MCI),并将其划分为无旱、轻旱、中旱、重旱、特旱等5个等级。统计轻旱以上干旱等级出现频次作为研究区干旱灾害致灾因子危险性评估指标,对该地区近40年的干旱致灾因子危险性风险展开评估。利用GIS软件和自然断点法将危险等级划分为5个等级,得到研究区不同干旱等级致灾因子危险性和近40年干旱灾害致灾因子空间分布特征区划图。研究发现:邢台地区干旱致灾因子危险性整体呈现出西部较高、东部相对较低的趋势。次低与低风险主要位于广宗县、内丘县、柏乡县、清河县、新河县等地区,次高与高风险主要位于西部山区县等地区,中部平原县大多是中风险。最后,基于灾情数据对评估结果进行验证,结果基本与评估区划一致。

According to the precipitation and temperature data of Xingtai area from 1980 to 2019,the daily meteorological drought comprehensive index(MCI)was calculated and divided into five grades:no drought,light drought,medium drought,heavy drought and extreme drought.The occurrence frequency of drought grade above light drought was counted as the risk assessment index of drought disaster causing factors in the study area,and the risk of drought disaster causing factors in the region in the past 40 years was evaluated.By using GIS software and natural breakpoint method,the risk grade was divided into five grades,and the hazard of different drought grade disaster causing factors and the spatial distribution characteristics of drought disaster causing factors in recent 40 years were obtained.It was found that the risk of drought causing factors in Xingtai area was higher in the West and lower in the East.The second low and low risks were mainly located in Guangzong,Neiqiu,Baixiang,Qinghe,Xinhe County,etc.,the second high and high risks were mainly located in western mountainous counties,and the middle plain counties were mostly medium risks.Finally,the evaluation results were verified based on the disaster data,and the results were basically consistent with the evaluation zoning.