双碳政策下长江经济带物流业碳排放影响因素分析

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Carbon Emission of Logistics Industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt under the“Double Carbon”Policy

以长江经济带为研究对象,测算11省市在2003-2018年间的碳排放量后利用LMDI模型,从时间和空间两个维度分解了能源强度、能源结构、产业结构、区域经济和人口规模对物流业碳排放量变化的影响。研究结果表明,时间维度上,长江经济带二氧化碳排放量的增加主要受地区经济发展的驱动,产业结构和能源强度起主要的反向抑制作用;空间维度上,区域碳排放量差异扩大的主导因素是经济水平和人口规模,抑制差异扩大的主要因素由2003年的能源结构和强度转换成2018年的能源强度和产业结构。最后,从能源结构、能源效率、产业结构三方面提出发展低碳物流的建议。

Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research object,after calculating the carbon emissions of 11 provinces and cities from 2003 to 2018,the LMDI model is used to decompose the impact of energy intensity,energy structure,industrial structure,regional economy and population size on the change of carbon emissions of logistics industry from two dimensions of time and space.The results show that in the time dimension,the increase of carbon dioxide emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is mainly driven by regional economic development,and the industrial structure and energy intensity play a major negative inhibitory role;in the spatial dimension,the leading factors of the expansion of regional carbon emissions differences are economic level and population size,and the main factors restraining the expansion of differences have been transformed from the energy structure and intensity in 2003 to the energy intensity and industrial structure in 2018.Finally,it puts forward some suggestions on the development of low-carbon logistics from three aspects:energy structure,energy efficiency and industrial structure.