长寿风险对家庭参与风险性金融资产配置的影响研究

Impact of Longevity Risk on Household Risky Asset Allocation

增加风险资产配置是居民缓解长寿风险压力的重要手段。基于生命周期理论,通过构建Probit模型和中介效应模型,分析长寿风险对家庭参与风险资产配置的影响路径,并结合我国国情按老年人口抚养比大小进行了异质性分析。结果表明,长寿风险会以平均寿命增长为基点,通过增加单位家庭老年人口抚养负担,提升家庭配置风险资产的概率。同时,在老年人口抚养负担较重的地区,人口规模、人均收入以及教育程度和标准化社保参与水平,对提升家庭金融市场参与率方面将具有更强的促进作用,而风险厌恶情绪的阻碍作用却会被进一步放大。

Increasing the allocation of risky assets is an important means for households to relieve the pressure of longevity risk.Based on the Life-Cycle Hypothesis,this paper used the CHFS data of 2019 to construct a Probit model,with average life expectancy as the core variable and the dependency ratio of the elderly population as the mediating variable.And a heterogeneity analysis is made according to the dependency ratio of the aged population.The results show that longevity risk will be based on the increase of average life expectancy,and by bearing the burden of supporting elderly population in one unit like family to increase their probability of financial market participation.Meanwhile,the level of population education and the popularization of standardized social insurance also play a crucial role in improving the family financial market participation rate.Besides,residents in areas with heavy burden of supporting elderly population will have more significant risk aversions.