人力资本、技术创新扩散与碳排放——基于广东动态空间杜宾面板模型分析

Human Capital,Technological Innovation Diffusion and Carbon Emissions——Based on the Dubin Panel Model of Guangdong Dynamic Space

以2005-2017年广东21个地级市为研究对象,通过三种空间权重矩阵构建动态杜宾面板模型,验证人力资本流动、技术创新扩散与碳排放三者关系。研究发现,人力资本与技术创新均能显著减少地区碳排放的影响,且两者交互作用能强化低碳效应;广东地级市的碳排放具有空间相关性,且人力资本与技术创新的协同作用能通过地区流动方式对其他地区低碳发展产生空间溢出效应;人力资本与技术创新的协同作用对碳排放的影响具有较强的空间扩散效应,其空间扩散效应大于空间直接效应。考虑不同形式的空间权重矩阵与替换人力资本变量后,这一结果仍然具有稳健性。基于实证结果与发展现状,提出了打造广东碳排放协同治理模式的政策建议。

Based on 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong province from 2005 to 2017,a dynamic Durbin panel model is constructed to verify the relationship among human capital flow,technological innovation diffusion and carbon emissions through three spatial weight matrices.The results show that both human capital and technological innovation can significantly reduce the impact of regional carbon emissions,and their interaction can strengthen the low-carbon effect.The carbon emissions of Guangdong prefecture-level cities have spatial correlation,and the synergistic effect of human capital and technological innovation can have spatial spillover effect on the low-carbon development of other regions through regional flow mode.The synergistic effect of human capital and technological innovation has a strong spatial diffusion effect on carbon emissions,and the spatial diffusion effect is greater than the direct effect.After considering different spatial weight matrices and substituting human capital variables,this result is still robust.Based on the empirical results and development status,this paper puts forward policy suggestions to build a collaborative governance model of carbon emissions in Guangdong province.