“一带一路”倡议是否促进了沿线国家的产业发展?--来自“一带一路”国家向中国出口高技术产品的证据

Does the Belt and Road Initiative Promote Industry Development of the Countries along the Route?--An Evidence from the High-tech Product Export to China

本文从中国高技术产品进口视角探究了“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家出口的影响,结果发现,“一带一路”倡议显著促进了沿线国家对中国高技术产品出口,且一系列有效性和稳健性检验均表明这一促进效应显著存在。异质性分析表明,在地理上,“一带一路”倡议更显著地促进“陆上丝绸之路”和“一带一路”沿线远邻国家对中国高技术产品出口,且对制度完善国家的促进效应更加显著;在产品类别上,“一带一路”倡议更显著地促进了沿线国家对中国高技术中间品出口。影响机制检验表明,“一带一路”倡议通过改善沿线国家基础设施、推动沿线国家金融市场发展以及提升技术水平促进了沿线国家对中国高技术产品出口。渠道分析表明,“一带一路”倡议通过出口种类(广度边际)和平均出口额(深度边际)扩张途径促进沿线国家对中国高技术产品出口。

This paper evaluates the effect of the BRI on the high-tech products export to China by using the difference-in-differences method.The results show that BRI has significantly increased the high-tech product export of the countries along the route to China,which is confirmed by a series of effectiveness and robustness tests.The heterogeneous effect analysis suggests that geographically,the countries along the Land Silk Road,far from China and with the comparatively perfect institution is strongly promoted.We also explore the heterogeneous effect at the products levels by using triple difference models,which indicates that the effect is mainly concentrated on the mid products.The positive effect of the BRI can be realized and explained through the five connectivities,which promote the development of infrastructure,financial market and technology of the countries along the route.In addition,the effect of the BRI is manifested by the expansi on of the intensive margin and extensive margin,which means the variety and the average of high-tech products of the countries along the route exporting to China are increased.