优化NGM(1,1,k)模型在国内能源消费中的应用

Application of an Optimized NGM(1,1,k) Model in Domestic Energy Consumption

为探究中国国内能源消费的未来发展趋势,建立了优化的NGM(1,1,k)模型来研究中国国内的能源消费情况,将优化模型和其他2个灰色预测模型分别应用于中国国内能源消耗的案例,并通过5个常用的预测模型性能评价指标进行比较.案例结果表明,ONGM (1,1,k)模型在应用案例中表现最好,从而证实了模型的可行性和有效性.将新陈代谢的思想引入到ONGM (1,1,k)模型中,对未来5年中国国内能源消耗情况进行了合理预测.

In order to explore the future development trend of domestic energy consumption in China, an optimized NGM(1,1,k) model is developed to study domestic energy consumption in China.The proposed model is applied to the case of China’s domestic energy consumption with 2 other grey prediction models respectively, and five indicators commonly used to evaluate the performance of prediction models are used to make comparison.The results of the cases show that the optimized NGM(1,1,k) model shows the best performance in the applied cases, thus confirming the feasibility and validity of the model.At the end of the paper, the metabolic idea is introduced into the proposed model to make a reasonable prediction of China’s domestic energy consumption in the next 10 years.