农业视角下加入CPTPP对中国经济和产业的影响研究

Study on the Impacts of Joining CPTPP on China’s Economy and Industry from the Perspective of Agriculture

为推动高水平对外开放和高质量畅通外循环,中国已正式申请加入CPTPP。农业是关系中国国计民生的重要产业,也是CPTPP各成员十分关注的领域。本文在深入分析CPTPP主要成员关税减让情况的基础上,通过GTAP模型定量测度加入CPTPP对中国经济和农业的影响。研究结果显示,加入CPTPP对中国宏观经济具有正向促进作用,同时对农业产出的负面影响有限,但对乳制品、羊毛及丝织品、小麦等农产品进出口冲击较大。建议中国坚持安全底线,细化研究CPTPP规则做好重点农产品的保护预案,有序推进农业进一步开放,并持续深化农业改革,在区域经济一体化中把握主动权。

In order to promote high-level opening-up and high-quality unblocked external circulation, China has announced its application to join the CPTPP. Agriculture is an important industry related to China’s national economy and people’s livelihood, and also a field of great concern to all CPTPP members. Based on in-depth analysis of tariff concessions of major CPTPP members, this paper quantitatively measures the impact of CPTPP on China’s agriculture through GTAP model. The results show that joining CPTPP has positive effects on China’s macro economy, and has limited negative impacts on agricultural output, but has a great impact on the import and export of dairy products, wool and silk fabrics, wheat and other agricultural products.It is suggested to adhere to the safety bottom line, make good use of CPTPP rules to make protection plans for sensitive agricultural products, orderly promote further opening up of agriculture, and seize the opening opportunity to promote the continuous deepening of agricultural reform, so as to take the initiative in regional economic integration.