气候变化情景下须鳗鰕虎鱼在中国的潜在地理分布

Potential geographical distribution of purple eel goby Taenioides cirratus in China under climate change scenarios

为探明须鳗鰕虎鱼Taenioides cirratus在中国的潜在地理分布及未来的变化,基于该鱼目前在中国的分布数据和19个气候因子变量,运用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)对该物种的适生区及在未来(2050s和2070s)4种气候情景(RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 6.0和RCP 8.5)下的变化进行了预测。结果表明:不同气候情景下,模型的AUC(area under curve)值均达到0.96以上,模型预测准确性达“极好”;当前(1970—2000年)须鳗鰕虎鱼适生区主要集中在长江口、珠江口、雷州半岛及附近沿海区域,海南和台湾边缘沿海区域,以及四川东南部和重庆西南部等长江沿岸地区,其高度、中度和低度适生区总面积分别为9.89、7.46、16.28万km^(2);须鳗鰕虎鱼的分布主要受到最冷季度降水量、昼夜温差月平均值和最冷月最低温度等环境因子的影响;未来须鳗鰕虎鱼适生区呈扩大趋势,到2050s(2041—2060年),在4种气候情景下,该鱼高度适生区将向北扩张,面积较当前平均增加83.8%,中度适生区除在高度适生区边缘外,在长江流域和淮河流域地区大幅度增加,面积较当前平均增加198.5%;到2070s(2061—2080年),其适生区较2050s无明显变化。研究表明,未来气候变化会促进须鳗鰕虎鱼向北和向西扩张,增加其在中国的适生区。

In order to probe into the potential geographical distribution of purple eel goby Taenioides cirratus in China in current and in the future,the suitable distribution areas of purple eel goby in China in current and in the future(2050s and 2070s)under the four climate scenarios(RCP 2.6,RCP 4.5,RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5,RCP=representative concentration pathways,numbers after RCP represent the radiative forcing in the atmosphere by 2100,respectively,up to 2.6,4.5,6.0,and 8.5 W/m^(2))by the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model based on the distribution data of purple eel goby and 19 climate factors including temperature,moisture and precipitation.Results showed that the model's AUC(area under curve)values of different climate scenarios were above 0.96,indicating that the accuracy of prediction reached“excellent”.Precipitation of coldest quarter,mean diurnal range and mean of monthly and minimum temperature of coldest month were found to be the main limiting factors for the distribution of purple eel goby.Under current climate model,the suitable distribution areas were mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Estuary,Pearl River Estuary,Leizhou Peninsula and nearby offshore areas,the marginal coastal areas of Hainan and Taiwan and the areas along the Yangtze River such as southeast Sichuan and southwest Chongqing.In the future,the suitable distribution area for purple eel goby will expand greatly.In 2050s(2041 to 2060),the purple eel goby will had highly suitable area and expand to the north under the four climate scenarios of RCP 2.6,RCP 4.5,RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5,with an average increase by 83.8%compared with current climate model.For the moderately suitable area,apart from the margins of the highly suitable areas,they will expand to the Yangtze River Basin and the Huaihe River Basin,with an average increase by 198.5%compared with current climate model.By 2070s(2061 to 2080),there will be no significant change in the suitable distribution area of purple eel goby compared with 2050s.In conclusion,future climate change will promote purple eel goby northward and westward expansion and increase its suitable distribution areas in China.