基于余弦相关性分析的光伏集群出力预测

Photovoltaic Cluster Output Forecasting Based on Cosine Correlation Analysis

光伏发电具有波动性和间歇性,分布式光伏发电的大规模并网,对电网的调度、电能质量及电网的稳定性运行造成很大影响。光伏出力预测在有效解决上述问题的同时为电网调控提供了有力的支撑。本文建立基于相关性分析的单场电站组合预测模型,利用选取典型场站、更新相关场站的相关系数和权重因子对光伏集群进行处理预测,实践证明本文模型能得到比较准确的光伏集群预测结果。

Photovoltaic(PV)power generation is volatile and intermittent.With the large-scale grid-connected distributed PV power,power grid scheduling,power quality and stability of the operation will suffer a great impact.PV output forecasting can effectively solve these problems and provide a strong support for power grid regulation.In this paper,a single-field power plant combination forecasting model based on correlation analysis is established,and the correlation coefficient and weight factor of selected typical field stations and updated relevant field stations are utilized to deal with and forecast PV clusters.The practice shows that this model can be used to get more accurate PV cluster prediction results.