京津冀地区再现三河-平谷8.0级地震的人员伤亡分析

Analysis of casualties of the Sanhe-Pinggu MS8.0 earthquake reproduced in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

京津冀地区1679年曾发生三河-平谷8.0级大地震,造成了严重的人员伤亡,严重影响当时的社会经济。本文对三河-平谷8.0级地震进行原地再现,分析所造成的人员伤亡。首先,基于最新的建筑物竣工面积统计资料更新建筑物公里网格数据,基于普查数据对人口公里网格进行了更新,并采用热力图对人口的时空流动进行了预测,得到了符合当地特征的承灾体的数量和分布。在此基础上,采用分区分类地震易损性模型和人员伤亡评估模型,对京津冀地区遭受三河-平谷8.0级设定地震的人员伤亡进行了分析。分析结果表明:京津冀地区现今的人口数量相对于1679年成百倍增加,但人员伤亡率大幅降低。

In 1679,the Sanhe⁃Pinggu M_(S)8.0 earthquake occurred in the Beijing⁃Tianjin⁃Hebei region,which caused serious casualties and seriously affected the social economy at that time.In this paper,the Sanhe⁃Pinggu M_(S)8.0 earthquake is reproduced in situ and the casualties caused by it are analyzed.Firstly,the building kilometer grid data was updated based on the latest statistical data of completed building area,and the population kilometer grid was updated based on census data,and the temporal and spatial flow of population was predicted by using ther⁃mal map,and the number and distribution of disaster bearing bodies consistent with local characteristics were ob⁃tained.On this basis,the vulnerability model and casualty assessment model were used to analyze the casualties caused by the Sanhe⁃Pinggu M_(S)8.0 scenario earthquake in The Beijing⁃Tianjin⁃Hebeiregion.The results show that the population of the Beijing⁃Tianjin⁃Hebei region has increased 100 times compared with that in 1679,but the ca⁃sualty rate has decreased significantly.