中国大陆地区M_(S)≥5.0地震灾害生命可接受风险标准研究

Life risk acceptability criteria for M_(S)≥5.0 earthquake disaster in Chinese Mainland

地震灾害可接受风险水平反映了社会对地震灾害的风险认知。本文基于1991年~2020年中国大陆地区M_(S)≥5.0地震灾害数据,分析地震灾害的时空分布特征,并在此基础上应用F-N曲线法构建不同震级的地震灾害生命损失概率分布函数,进而绘制出灾害可接受风险曲线,以此确定出地震灾害生命可接受风险标准。研究结果表明:中国大陆地区M_(S)≥5.0地震活动、灾害次数、成灾率和致人员死亡的成灾率分别在2008年、2003年、2011年和1996年表现出高值,在空间上M_(S)≥5.0地震和地震灾害集中分布在西部地区。M_(S)5.0~M_(S)5.9、M_(S)6.0~M_(S)6.9和M_(S)≥5.0地震灾害致1人死亡概率分别超过6.19×10^(-6)/a、1.37×10^(-5)/a和1.62×10^(-5)/a为不可接受风险,M_(S)≥7.0地震灾害致4人死亡的累计概率超过1.96×10^(-5)/a为不可接受风险,而M_(S)5.0~M_(S)5.9、M_(S)6.0~M_(S)6.9、M_(S)≥7.0和M_(S)≥5.0地震灾害导致死亡人数分别超过8人、44人、2417人和2468人的年死亡概率为任意值均是不可接受的。该研究结果可以为我国地震灾害风险评估与管理、灾害保险费率的厘定以及灾害教育的开展提供一定的理论和实践依据。

The acceptable risk level of earthquake disaster reflects the society′s risk perception of the disaster.Based on the data of M_(S)≥5.0 earthquake disasters in Chinese Mainland from 1991 to 2020,this article analyzes the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of earthquake disasters,and uses the F-N curve method to con⁃struct the probability distribution function of life loss of earthquake disasters with different magnitudes,and then draws the acceptable risk boundary curve,so as to determine the life risk acceptability criteria of earthquake disas⁃ters.The results show that:the earthquakes with M_(S)≥5.0,the occurrence times of earthquake disasters,the disaster rate and the disaster frequency causing death in Chinese Mainland showed high values in 2008,2003,2011 and 1996 respectively.Spatially,earthquakes with M_(S)≥5.0 and earthquake disasters are concentrated in Western China.The probability of one death caused by the M_(S)5.0~M_(S)5.9,M_(S)6.0~M_(S)6.9 and M_(S)≥5.0 earthquake disasters exceed 6.19×10^(-6)/a,1.37×10^(-5)/a and1.62×10^(-5)/a respectively,which is unacceptable risk,and the probability of four deaths caused by earthquake disasters with M_(S)≥7.0 exceeds 1.96×10^(-5)/a is an unacceptable risk,while the annual death probability of more than 8,44,2417 and 2468 deaths caused by M_(S)5.0~M_(S)5.9,M_(S)6.0~M_(S)6.9,M_(S)≥7.0 and M_(S)≥5.0 earthquake disasters at all levels is unacceptable.The research results can provide a certain theoretical and practical basis for earthquake disaster risk assessment and management,the determination of disaster insur⁃ance premium rate and the development of disaster education in China.