中国建筑坍塌事故时空分布特征及引致因素分析

The Spatial-Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Building Collapse Accidents in China and the Analysis of Factors

本研究收集我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)2000—2020年584起坍塌事故案例,综合运用描述性统计、平均最近邻指数、核密度分析、标准差椭圆分析和解释结构模型,研究2000—2020年坍塌事故的时空分布特征及引致因素。结果表明:(1)时间维度上,2000—2012年坍塌事故量少,2013—2020年事故频数明显上升,2017年为峰值,每年8月为事故高峰期,2月为事故低谷期,16—17时为事故多发时段;(2)空间维度上,我国建筑坍塌事故呈聚集性分布,高发区为胡焕庸线东侧,集中在华东区域,广东、江苏省为事故多发的高密度区,空间格局存在一定的演化特征,由西向东的集聚效应日益增强,分布中心不会发生较大偏移;(3)人员、环境、物和管理因素共同作用导致了坍塌事故,行政监管力度是致使坍塌事故发生的根本因素。

In this paper, 584 cases of collapse accidents in 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities) from 2000 to 2020 were collected. Descriptive statistics, average nearest neighbor index, nuclear density analysis, standard deviation ellipse analysis and interpretative structural model were used to study the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and causes of collapse accidents from 2000 to 2020. The results show that :(1) in the time dimension, the number of collapse accidents in 2000—2012 is small, the frequency of accidents in 2013—2020 is significantly increased, and the peak is in 2017, august is the peak period of accidents, february is the trough period of accidents, and 16—17 is the period of frequent accidents;(2) in the spatial dimension, the building collapse accidents in China are clustered, the high-incidence area is the eastern side of Hu Huanyong line, which is concentrated in the eastern region of China, Guangdong and Jiangsu Province are high-density areas with frequent accidents, the spatial pattern has certain evolutionary characteristics, the agglomeration effect from west to east is increasing, and the distribution center will not deviate greatly;(3) the combined effect of personnel, environment, material and management factors leads to the collapse accident, and the administrative supervision is the fundamental factor leading to the collapse accident.