基于模糊充电规则的电动汽车负荷调频容量预测

Prediction of Load Frequency Modulation Capacity of Electric Vehicles Based on Fuzzy Charging Rules

为有效预测某区域电动汽车负荷峰值与峰值时刻,以确定电动汽车负荷调频容量,本文基于出行链及起止点矩阵理论,考虑工作日与休息日出行习惯的差异性,并结合实际道路交通状况,建立了电动汽车区域道路模型;考虑用户出行目的与电动汽车停驻信息,采用模糊充电规则对电动汽车负荷充电需求进行判断;结合配电网历史运行数据,对24h内电动汽车可参与电网调频的容量进行预测;选定实际面积为900平方千米的某区域,通过仿真分析该区域电动汽车在工作日可提供的调频容量;仿真结果表明电动汽车可提供的调频容量十分可观,可有效参与电网调频服务。

In order to effectively predict the peak and peak moments of electric vehicle load in a certain area,to determine the electric vehi-cle load frequency modulation capacity,this paper is based on the travel chain and start-stop matrix theory,considers the differ-ence between workdays and rest and sunrise habits,and combines actual road traffic conditions.Established an electric vehicle re-gional road model;considering the user’s travel purpose and electric vehicle parking information,fuzzy charging rules are used to judge the electric vehicle load charging demand;combined with the historical operation data of the distribution network,the electric vehicle can participate in the frequency regulation of the power grid within 24 hours Capacity prediction;select an area with an actual area of 900 square kilometers,and analyze the FM capacity that electric vehicles can provide in this area on week-days through simulation;the simulation results show that the FM capacity that electric vehicles can provide is considerable,effec-tively participate in grid frequency modulation services.