北京市斜坡灾害与降雨量相关性分析

Correlation analysis between slope disaster and rainfall in Beijing

斜坡灾害作为北京市发生数量最多的突发地质灾害类型,是北京地质灾害防治工作的重点和难点,且诱发因素以降雨为主。多长时间的降雨会对北京地区斜坡变形有影响目前还主要停留在经验判断上。为此,选取北京怀柔区2021年汛期斜坡灾害和房山区史家营灰青涧滑坡作为研究样本,分析了斜坡灾害与灾害发生前1~30 d 24 h降雨量的相关性。通过统计分析得出北京市斜坡灾害与前一周内降雨量的相关性最大,该研究结论可作为北京市斜坡灾害预警工作的重要参考。

Slope disaster,as the most frequent type of sudden geological disaster with the largest number in Beijing,is the focus and difficulty of geological disaster prevention and control in Beijing.Its inducing triggering factor is mainly rainfall.How long rainfall has an impact on slope deformation in Beijing is still mainly based on qualitative and empirical judgment.Therefore,this paper selects the 2021 flood season slope disaster in Huairou District of Beijing and Shijiaying huiqingjian landslide in Fangshan District as the research samples,and analyzes the correlation between slope disasters and 24 h rainfall from 1 to 30 days before the disaster.The statistical analysis shows that the slope disaster in Beijing has the greatest correlation with the rainfall in the previous week.The research conclusion can be used as an important reference for slope disaster early warning in Beijing.