贸易政策不确定性如何影响企业全要素生产率?——基于中国“入世”的准自然实验

How Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Firm's Total Factor Productivity?——Based on the Quasi-Natural Experiment of China’s Entry into WTO

以中国“入世”为准自然实验,采用倍差法系统考察了贸易政策不确定性对我国制造业企业全要素生产率的影响。研究发现,贸易政策不确定性的下降显著提升了我国制造业企业的全要素生产率,并且这种影响具有动态可持续性特征,在更换被解释变量及核心解释变量测算方法等一系列稳健性检验之后,该结论依然成立;贸易政策不确定性对企业生产率的影响在企业所属地区、贸易方式、进出口状态、所有制及企业规模等层面呈现出明显的异质性特征。进一步的机制检验结果表明,贸易政策不确定性的下降可以通过企业研发创新、中间品进口增加、出口产品质量等渠道提升企业全要素生产率。本研究为贸易政策不确定背景下我国企业全要素生产率的提升提供了新的研究视角,也为“逆全球化”背景下我国经济的高质量发展提供了重要的决策依据。

Taking China's entry into WTO as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper examines the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the total factor productivity(TFP)of manufacturing enterprises in China by using the DID method.The research shows:the decline of trade policy uncertainty significantly enhances the TFP of manufacturing enterprises in China and the effect presents dynamical sustainable characteristic.After a series of robust test of changing the explained variables and key explaining variables,the conclusion is still established;The above effect indicates heterogeneity among regions,trade manners,status of import and export,ownership and enterprise sizes.Further mechanism test shows that the decline of trade policy uncertainty may stimulate firm's TFP through the innovation of enterprise's R&D,the increase of enterprise's import of intermediate goods and the improvement of enterprise's export quality.This study provides a new perspective for the improvement of TFP of Chinese enterprises under the background of trade policy uncertainty,and also provides an important decision-making basis for the high-quality development of China’economy under the background of anti-globalization.