面向精英群体沉默的网络观点演化偏差仿真研究

A simulation study on the evolutionary bias of network views for elite group silence

目的:研究仿真精英群体在社交网络中发言频率降低而导致网络观点演化出现偏差的现象,为政府等机构有效引导舆论、治理网络乱象等提供参考。方法:将网络用户细分为普通群体、精英群体和超级用户3类,基于改进的Hegselmann-Krause(HK)模型构建精英群体沉默状态下的网络观点演化模型,并基于MATLAB进行仿真。结果:网络噪声会对网络观点演化造成干扰,且噪声越大,整体网络观点越难达到统一;超级用户基本不受网络噪声干扰,仍能够对网络观点演化趋势产生统领性的影响;精英群体会受到网络噪声干扰,且由噪声导致的沉默行为会造成整体网络观点的偏差性演化,尤其当与超级用户的观点值相左时。结论:重视因精英群体沉默而导致的网络观点演化偏差现象,建议通过健全网络“实名制”配套机制、加快推进网络立法进程等方式,保证精英群体理性发声的权利和底气,从而引导网络舆情健康、有序发展。

Objective To provide a reference for the government and other agencies to effectively guide public opinion and manage online chaos by simulating bias in the evolution of online opinions caused by the reduced speaking frequency of elite groups in social networks.Methods The network users were subdivided into three categories:ordinary groups,elite groups and super users.Based on the improved Hegselmann-Krause(HK)model,a network opinion evolution model under the silent state of elite groups was constructed and simulated based on MATLAB.Results Network noise will interfere with the evolution of network opinions and the greater the noise,the more difficult it is to achieve unity of the overall network opinions;super users are basically free from network noise interference,and they can still exert a dominant influence on the evolution of network opinions;elite groups will be disturbed by the network noise,and the noise-induced silence behavior will lead to the biased evolution of the overall network opinion,especially when the opinion value is different from that of the super users.Results It is suggested to improve the supporting mechanism of“real-name system”and accelerate the process of network legislation,so that elite group will rationally speak out,guiding to the healthy and orderly development of online public opinions.