内蒙古地表水环境质量现状分析与预测研究

Analysis and Prediction of Surface Water Environmental Quality in Inner Mongolia

为了解“十三五”期末内蒙古自治区地表水环境质量现状并对“十四五”期末水质情况进行预测,分析评价了自治区地表水环境质量现状,使用Spearman秩相关系数法分析了“十三五”期间水质变化情况,采用Prophet模型进行水质预测分析。结果表明:2020年内蒙古自治区地表水呈轻度污染;“十三五”期间,地表水环境质量明显好转;数学模型水质预测结果显示,“十四五”期末内蒙古地表水中COD_(cr)、COD_(Mn)和TN年均浓度分别为14.2 mg/L、3.4 mg/L和1.6 mg/L,COD_(cr)和COD_(Mn)浓度符合Ⅲ类标准限值,TN年均浓度超过Ⅲ类标准限值。

This paper evaluated the environmental quality status of surface water in Inner Mongolia in order to understand the current situation of surface water environmental quality at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan period and to predict the water quality at the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period.The change trend during 13th Five-Year Plan period was analyzed by Spearman rank correlation coefficient method,and the water quality was predicted by Prophet model.The results showed that the surface water was slightly polluted in Inner Mongolia in 2020,during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.The quality of surface water improved significantly,and the results of water quality prediction by mathematical model showed that the annual average concentrations of Chemical Oxygen Demand,Permanganate Index and Total Nitrogen were 14.2 mg/L,3.4 mg/L and 1.6 mg/L at the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period.The average annual concentration of Chemical Oxygen Demand and Permanganate Index reach the III standard limit,and the concentration of Total Nitrogen exceeds the III standard limits.