摘要
以珠三角地区广州市典型城区流域东濠涌流域为研究区,采用Delta方法和年最大值法相结合推求未来时期东濠涌流域短历时暴雨强度公式,基于InfoWorks ICM构建一二维耦合的东濠涌流域城市雨洪模型,定量评估气候变化对排水系统的影响。结果表明:在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,未来时期降雨强度峰值以及累积降水量均呈增加的变化趋势,城市排水系统节点溢流量、超载管道比例和淹没深度增大,给排水系统带来更为严重的影响。这一结果表明未来时期珠三角地区可能遭受更为不利的洪涝风险灾害。
Taking the Donghaochong Watershed in the typical urban area of Guangzhou City in the Pearl River Delta as the study area,the formula for short-duration rainstorm intensity in the Donghaochong Watershed in the future was derived by combining the Delta method and the annual maximum method.Based on InfoWorks ICM,a one-and two-dimensional coupled urban storm flood model of Donghaochong Watershed was constructed to quantitatively assess the impact of climate change on the drainage system.The results show that under the scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,the peak rainfall intensity and the cumulative rainfall in the future will increase.The increases of node overflow,proportion of overloaded pipes and submergence depth of urban drainage system will bring more serious impact to the drainage system.This result indicates that the Pearl River Delta region may suffer more unfavorable flood risk disasters in the future.
作者
张瀚
邱静
黄本胜
杨志峰
蔡宴朋
ZHANG Han;QIU Jing;HUANG Bensheng;YANG Zhifeng;CAI Yanpeng(Guangdong Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower,Guangzhou 510635,China;Institute of Environmental&Ecological Engineering,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006,China)
出处
《水资源保护》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第6期56-63,193,共9页
Water Resources Protection
基金
粤港水安全联合实验室(2020B1212030005)。
