岱海湖水位对气候要素与土地利用的响应

Responses of Daihai Lake water level to climatic factors and land use

利用Mann-Kendall检验、Hurst系数法、基于有序聚类法的t检验等方法分析湖区水位演变趋势;利用Partial Mantel检验法,并通过构建缺失资料地区的湖区水文模型,探究了典型半干旱区湖泊岱海湖水位对气候要素与土地利用变化的响应。结果表明:岱海湖水位1959—2018年呈现显著下降趋势,于1982年和2005年发生突变,未来水位将呈现持续降低趋势;岱海湖春季受融雪影响导致水位较高,秋季受用水影响导致水位较低,且秋季水位降低在四季中最为明显;气候变化与水土资源开发利用是影响半干旱区湖泊水位变化的主要因素,在气候变化条件下,岱海湖水位对气温变化最为敏感,对日照变化的响应次之;由于岱海湖流域降水产流下渗机制较为复杂,岱海湖水位对降水变化的响应具有滞后性,流域林草面积增加可能是引发岱海湖水位降低的重要因素。

With Daihai Lake in a typical semi-arid area as an example,the Mann-Kendall test,Hurst coefficient method,and t-test based on the ordered clustering method were used to analyze the evolution trend of water level in the lake,and the Partial Mantel test was employed and a hydrological model for lake area without enough data was constructed to study the response of the lake water level to climate factors and land use change.The results show that the water level of Daihai Lake had a significant downward trend from 1959 to 2018,with abrupt changes occurring in 1982 and 2005,respectively,and the water level will continue to decrease in the future;the water level of Daihai Lake is higher in spring due to snowmelt and lower in autumn due to water consumption,and the decrease of water level in autumn is the most obvious in the four seasons;climate change and water and soil resources use are the main factors affecting the lake water level change in semi-arid area,and the water level of Daihai Lake is the most sensitive to temperature,followed by sunshine under the condition of climate change.Due to the complex mechanism of precipitation,runoff,and infiltration in the Daihai Lake Basin,the water level of Daihai Lake responds with a lag to precipitation change,and the increase of forest and grass area in the lake basin may be an important factor causing the decrease of lake water level.