城市群经济结构对民航客运市场的影响机制分析——以京津冀地区为例

Influence Mechanism of Economic Structure of Urban Agglomeration on Civil Aviation Passenger Transport Market:A Case Study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

为探究城市经济结构对民航客运市场的具体影响效果,选取不同城市的经济发展水平、航空服务、旅游业及产业结构来分析其对各个机场群成员旅客吞吐量的影响机制。基于京津冀地区6个城市及其机场的2006—2019年面板数据,将数据对数化处理,建立双对数回归模型,通过单位根检验和协整检验验证数据模型的平稳性,实现对面板数据的实证研究。研究表明:①GDP、常住居民人口和人均可支配收入每增加1%,区域内平均旅客吞吐量分别降低1.05%、提升0.02%和提升0.38%,人均可支配收入的正向影响效果在三者之中最为明显;②飞机起降架次增加1%引起京津冀机场群旅客吞吐量增长3.6%,其中对区域内石家庄正定机场的影响最大,为9.73%,对天津滨海机场的影响最小,为3.39%;③城市的国内旅游收入增长1%引起京津冀机场群旅客吞吐量增长1.27%,对石家庄正定机场和秦皇岛北戴河机场存在显著负向影响,分别为-6.53%和-0.6%;④第一产业、第二产业和第三产业产值增长1%分别引起京津冀机场群旅客吞吐量增加了1.27%,1.37%和1.04%。基于京津冀地区实证结果,城市经济结构对民航客运市场存在影响效果的一致性和差异性。

To investigate the specific effect of urban economic structure on the civil aviation passenger market,the economic development level,air service,tourism and industrial structure of different cities were selected to analyze the mechanism of their influence on the passenger throughput of each airport group member.Based on the panel data of six cities and their airports in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2006—2019,the data were logarithmically processed,and a double-logarithmic regression model was applied to verify the smoothness of the data model through unit root test and co-integration test to achieve an empirical study of the panel data.The research results showed that in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region:①for every 1%increase in GDP,resident population and per capita disposable income,the average passenger throughput in the region decreases by 1.05%,increases by 0.02%and increases by 0.38%respectively,with the positive effect of per capita disposable income being the most obvious among the three;②a 1%increase in aircraft taking off and landing causes a 3.6%increase in the passenger throughput of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei airport cluster,with the largest effect of 9.73%on Shijiazhuang Zhengding Airport and the smallest effect of 3.39%on Tianjin Binhai Airport in the region;③a 1%increase in domestic tourism revenue of cities causes a 1.27%increase in passenger throughput of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Airport Cluster,and the growth of domestic tourism revenue of cities has a significant negative impact on Shijiazhuang Zhengding Airport and Qinhuangdao Beidaihe Airport with-6.53%and-0.6%respectively;④a 1%increase in the output value of primary,secondary and tertiary industries causes 1.27%,1.37%and 1.04%increase in the passenger throughput of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei airport cluster,respectively.Based on the empirical results in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,there is consistency and variability in the effect of urban economic structure on the civil aviation passenger market.