后扶贫时代中国西部省域农村相对贫困变动及其分解研究

Changes and Decomposition of Rural Relative Poverty in Western China in Post Poverty Alleviation Era

基于2010—2020年我国西部省域农村居民收入分组数据,运用GQ模型拟合洛伦兹曲线并测算FGT指标,测算出后扶贫时代农村总体和各省域子样本异质性的相对贫困状况并进行相对贫困变动分解,采用Shapley完全分解方法进行稳健性检验,同时对城镇相对贫困进一步讨论并进行对比分析。结果表明:(1)总体上农村相对贫困状况呈现整体波动后缓解的趋势。(2)分解方面,增长效应加剧相对贫困,收入增长在中后期阶段对相对贫困逐渐产生抑制效应;分配效应抑制相对贫困,但呈现不稳定的波动状态。省域农村内部相对贫困呈现明显地区性特征,其效应分解结果与农村总体一致。(3)西部城镇相对贫困逐年加重,2020年超过农村相对贫困水平,其中增长效应和分配效应分别抑制和加剧相对贫困。基于此,后扶贫时代西部省域农村应继续完善相对贫困的识别体系与扶贫机制,协调发展各省域农村经济以减小地区性差异,同时制定城乡贫困治理的差异化扶贫路径。

Based on the income quintile data of rural residents in the Western provinces of China from 2010 to 2020,the GQ model was used to fit the Lorentz curve and the FGT index was calculated to obtain the relative poverty status of the overall and provincial sub-sample heterogeneity in the Western rural areas in the post poverty alleviation era.Then changes in relative poverty were decomposed and robustness tests conducted using the Shapley complete decomposition method.Lastly,further discussion and comparative analysis of urban relative poverty were carried out.The results show that:Firstly,in general,the situation of relative poverty in rural Western China shows an overall fluctuation and later easing trend.Secondly,on the decomposition side,while the rural growth effect exacerbates relative poverty,it has a dampening effect on relative poverty in the middle and later stages as the income growth situation changes.Distribution effect,while suppressing relative poverty,shows erratic fluctuations.Relative poverty within provincial rural areas shows obvious regional characteristics,and the decomposition results of its effects are consistent with those of rural overall.Thirdly,relative poverty in Western cities and towns has worsened year by year,exceeding the level of rural relative poverty in 2020.The income growth effect suppresses relative poverty,but the distribution effect is the main factor aggravating relative poverty.Therefore,in the post poverty alleviation era,rural areas in the west should continue to improve the relative poverty identification system and poverty alleviation mechanism,coordinate the development of rural economies in each province to reduce regional disparity,and develop differentiated poverty alleviation paths for urban and rural poverty governance.