新疆棉出口贸易的影响因素研究

Study on the Influencing Factors of Cotton Export Trade in Xinjiang

新疆是我国通商口岸开放最多的地区,同时也是我国最大的优质棉产地,其棉花产业出口贸易的发展对我国农业经济发展,尤其是农业外贸经济的发展具有重要意义。本文基于中国统计年鉴、新疆统计年鉴、中国棉花协会网2001—2020年的相关数据,选取新疆棉花价格、产量、汇率及进口量作为主要影响因素,利用最小二乘法对新疆棉出口总额影响因素进行探究。结果表明:价格、汇率及进口量是影响新疆棉花出口的主要因素,其中,价格、进口量与出口呈负相关关系,汇率与出口量呈正相关关系。并结合实证结果和发展形势,提出了针对性的发展对策。

Xinjiang is the region with the most open trade ports,and also the largest high-quality cotton production area in China. The development of cotton industry export trade is of great significance to the development of China’s agricultural economy,especially the development of agricultural foreign trade economy. Based on the relevant data of China Statistical Yearbook,Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook and China Cotton Association website from2001 to 2020,the paper selected Xinjiang cotton price,yield,exchange rate and import volume as the main influencing factors,and used the least square method to explore the influencing factors of Xinjiang cotton export. The results showed that price,exchange rate and import volume are the main factors affecting Xinjiang cotton export. Among them,price,import volume and export are negatively correlated,while exchange rate and export volume are positively correlated. Finally,combined with the empirical results and development situation,proposed targeted development countermeasures.