基于MaxEnt生态位模型的小蜻蜓尺蛾在我国的适生区预测分析

Predictions of Potential Distribution of Cystidia couaggaria in China Based on Max Ent Ecological Niche Model

利用MaxEnt生态位模型,结合ArcGIS软件,对小蜻蜓尺蛾在我国的适生区范围进行了预测分析。结果表明,该虫在我国的适生区占全国面积约32.71%,其中高、中、低适生区分别占8.62%、8.53%、15.55%,主要分布于我国东北平原、华北平原、长江中下游平原地区,温带季风气候以及亚热带季风气候区域。ROC评价结果表明,MaxEnt生态位模型的平均AUC值为0.984,预测结果具有较高的精度。各环境变量重要性的刀切法检验表明,温度因素对小蜻蜓尺蛾的潜在分布影响最大。

In this paper, MaxEnt ecological niche model and ArcGIS software were used to predict the suitable habitat range of the insect in China. The results showed that the suitable areas of this insect in China accounted for 32.71% of the total area. The high, middle and low suitable areas accounted for 8.62%, 8.53% and 15.55% respectively.The suitable areas of this insect mainly distributed in the Northeast Plain, North China Plain, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Plain, temperate monsoon climate and subtropical monsoon climate. ROC evaluation results showed that the average AUC value of MaxEnt niche model was 0.984, and the prediction results were of high accuracy. The analysis of importance of different environmental variables showed that the temperature factor had the greatest influence on the potential distribution of Cystidia couaggari.