美俄对后苏联空间国家制度变化的行动与态度——制度扩散还是地缘政治利益

Actions and Attitudes of the U.S.and Russia toward Regime Changes of the Post-Soviet States:Regime Diffusion or Geopolitical Interests

自苏联解体以来,美、俄等大国对后苏联空间国家的外交政策和干预程度各不相同。关于制度扩散的理论在解释美国的行动和态度时虽然具有一定说服力,但却难以单独解释俄罗斯的行为。因此,本文在讨论俄罗斯是否真正有意推动制度扩散的同时,引入地缘政治利益变量。制度扩散与地缘政治利益是一对关键变量。本文选取俄罗斯和美国这两个在制度选择与地缘政治诉求方面均有较大差异的国家进行分析,对两国相关案例和行为生成机制进行验证。结果显示,当一个国家具有较强制度扩散意愿时,其倾向于强力干预后苏联空间国家的制度选择,而较少考虑自身的地缘政治利益;当制度扩散意愿弱而地缘政治利益诉求强时,则倾向于对有关目标国家进行强力干预;当制度扩散意愿弱而地缘政治利益诉求低时,该国则往往采取不进行某种干预的政策。

Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union,major powers such as the United States and Russia have developed different foreign policies toward intervention in post-Soviet states.While theories of regime diffusion are effective in explaining U.S.actions and attitudes,such theories are inadequate to explain Russia’s actions.Therefore,in addition to regime diffusion and geopolitical interests,the pair of key explanatory variables,this article introduces geopolitical interests as an additional explanatory variable to discuss whether or not Russia intends to promote regime diffusion in post-Soviet states.This article selects Russia and the United States,two countries contrasting in institutional choices and geopolitical demands,to analyze and test the intervention mechanism.The results show that when a country has a strong willingness to promote its regime type abroad,it tends to intervene in the institutional choices of post-Soviet states while taking less consideration of its geopolitical interests;when a country’s willingness to spread its regime type is weak,and the appeal of geopolitical interests is high,it also tends to intervene in these countries;when a country’s willingness for regime diffusion and the appeal of geopolitical interests are low,it often adopts a non-interventionist policy.