价值累加理论视域下的阿富汗变局和塔利班走向研究

A Study on the Change of Afghanistan and the Future of Taliban from the Perspective of Value-added Theory

2021年8月阿富汗塔利班在被推翻20年后再次成为政权的执掌者。这与美国将战略目标从“以反恐为中心”转向“以大国竞争为中心”不无关系,而更深层的原因则是阿富汗国内政治生态变化导致的。价值累加理论提出社会运动是由结构性有利条件、结构性紧张、概化信念的形成和散播、诱发因素、参与者的行动动员以及社会控制的运作等因素顺序叠加而成。从价值累加理论审视作为一种政治伊斯兰现象的塔利班在阿富汗生成和发展的原因及对地区和国际社会的影响,能够为研判塔利班执政前景及对政治伊斯兰的影响提供另一种新的解释框架和理论视角。塔利班的未来发展走向,将在很大程度上影响甚至决定阿富汗的未来,这也是国际社会关注阿富汗局势发展中的焦点问题。

In August 2021,the Taliban in Afghanistan will returned and became the leader of the Afghan regime,20 years after being overthrown.Under the sudden change of the situation in Afghanistan,the United States has shifted its strategic objectives from“anti-terrorism as the center”to“competition among major countries as the center”,and the deeper reason is the result of changes in the domestic political ecology of Afghanistan.Value-added Theory proposes that the Social Movement is composed of structural favorable conditions,structural tension,formation and dissemination of generalized beliefs,inducement factors,action mobilization of participants and operation of social control.From the perspective of Value-added Theory,this paper analyzes the reasons for the formation and development of the Taliban in Afghanistan as a Political Islamic Phenomenon and its impact on the region and the international community.Analyzing the reasons for the formation and evolution of the Taliban in Afghanistan s political ecology from the perspective of the Value-added Theory can provide a new interpretation framework and theoretical perspective for analyzing the Taliban s ruling prospects and impact on Political Islam.The future development of the Taliban will,to a large extent,affect or even determine the future of Afghanistan,which is also the focus of the international community s attention.