基于广义连续时间贝叶斯网络的指挥控制网络系统可靠性分析

Reliability analysis of command and control network system based on generalized continuous time Bayesian network

指挥控制网络作为典型的复杂网络系统,其可靠性通常可以利用动态贝叶斯网络(dynamic Bayesian network,DBN)来分析。由于DBN并不能很好地解决包含时间和非时间事件的指挥控制网络系统可靠性问题,因此提出一种具有二态条件概率表的广义连续时间贝叶斯网络(generalized continuous time Bayesian network,GCTBN)的建模方法。在此模型的基础上,得到了不同逻辑门的可靠度算法求解,进而针对指挥控制网络系统提出了无线电传播、通信设备以及网络的可靠性分析方法,从而综合地考虑到指挥控制网络执行不同任务的可靠性问题。通过对指挥控制网络可靠性问题的实际案例分析,验证了所提方法的有效性。

As a typical complex network system,the reliability of command and control network can usually be analyzed by using dynamic Bayesian network(DBN).However,DBN cannot solve the reliability problem of command and control network system including time and non-time events.To end this,a modeling method of generalized continuous time Bayesian network(GCTBN)with two state conditional probability table is proposed.Based on this model,the reliability algorithm of different logic gates is proposed,and the reliability analysis method of wireless propagation,communication devices and network is proposed for command and control network system,so as to comprehensively consider the reliability problem of command and control network to perform different tasks.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by a real case study of command and control network reliability.