对预期赔付率假设合理性问题研究

根根《保险公司非寿险业务准备金管理办法》规定,保险公司在评估非寿险业务未到期责任准备金、未决赔款准备金时,需确定合理的预期赔付率假设。针对在实务中预期赔付率评估假设所存在的问题,本文从精算原理出发,分析未到期责任准备金预期赔付率假设与未决赔款准备金预期赔付率假设之间的数理关系,讨论这两类预期赔付率假设之间互相推算的方法,并提出两个评估优度指标。相关结论为进一步完善我国精算师行业的实务指引,规范各保险公司的准备金负债评估行为,提高保险公司财务报表的可比性提供建议。

According to Regulations on Reserve for Non-life Insurance Business of China Insurance Companies,insurance companies should properly determine the assumption concerning the expected loss ratios when evaluating the reserve liabilities under CGAAP.Based on the existing practical problems concerning the expected loss ratio assessment,this paper analyzes the mathematical relationship between the two sets of assumption of expected loss ratios for unearned premium reserve and for the outstanding loss reserve.This paper puts forward the methods of converting between two sets of assumptions,and the goodness index of calculating the expected loss ratios of outstanding loss reserves based on the data of policy year system and the expected loss ratios of unearned premium reserves,hoping to provide reference for the improvement of Chinese insurance industry regulatory system,standardize the appraisal behavior for reserve liabilities,and enhance the comparability of different insurance companies'financial statements.