基于星地融合的输电线路覆冰预警优化方法研究

Study on optimization method of transmission line icing prediction based on satellite-ground fusion

输电线路覆冰预测对保障电网安全具有重要意义,随着气象条件日趋复杂,为了提升输电线路覆冰预测的准确性和及时性,依托现有的覆冰预测模型,提出了一种基于卫星气象和地面气象站点数据的星地融合气象要素反演方法。对覆冰预测模型中核心气象输入参数(如温度、降水、风速)预报精度进行优化提升,进而提高复杂气象条件下输电线路覆冰预警精度。以浙江某输电线路为实验区,实验结果表明文中方法对温度和降水的预报效果提升较为明显,提前72 h输电线路覆冰预报的准确度相对于24 h预报准确度没有明显的下降,对于24 h~72 h的覆冰预测预警有较好的指导意义。

The prediction of icing on transmission lines is of great significance to ensure the safety of power grid.With the increasingly complex meteorological conditions,for purpose of improving the accuracy and timeliness of transmission line icing prediction,relying on the existing icing prediction model,this paper proposes a satellite-ground fusion meteorological element inversion method based on satellite meteorological and ground meteorological station data.This method optimizes and improves the prediction accuracy of the core meteorological input parameters in the icing prediction model,including temperature,precipitation,and wind speed,and then,improves the icing early warning accuracy of transmission lines under complex meteorological conditions.Taking a transmission line in Zhejiang as the experimental area,the results show that the prediction effect of the method proposed in this paper on temperature and precipitation is significantly improved,and the accuracy of the icing prediction of the transmission line 72 hours in advance is not significantly lower than that of the 24-hour forecast.It has good guiding significance for the 24~72-hour icing prediction and early warning.