湖南湘西州马尾松毛虫和松材线虫病发生非线性建模与预测

Prediction of Occurrence Trend of Dendrolimus punctatus and Pine Wilt Disease in Xiangxi Prefecture

为解决湖南湘西州森林病虫害预警难题,探究湘西州森林病虫害发生规律和未来发生情况。该文对湘西州2种主要森林病虫害马尾松毛虫和松材线虫病历史发生面积进行数据分析,并使用非线性自回归移动平均模型(Auto-Regression and Moving Average, ARIMA)与支持向量机(Support Vector Machine, SVM)组合模型对未来5 a的发生情况进行预测。研究表明,湘西州当前马尾松毛虫发生数据逐渐攀升,松材线虫病发生逐渐加重;未来马尾松毛虫在湘西州发生面积仍将延续周期性暴发趋势,而松材线虫病增长速率将大幅增高,发生面积将呈指数型上升。结果表明若保持现有防治能力不变,2种病虫害将会在未来几年对湘西州林业资源造成严重损失,湘西州应该加强监测、检疫和防治等工作力度,警惕马尾松毛虫、松材线虫病在湘西州暴发。

In order to solve the problem of early warning of forest diseases and insect pests in Xiangxi Prefecture, the regularity and future occurrence of forest diseases and insect pests in Xiangxi Prefecture are explored. This paper analyzes the historical occurrence area of two major forest diseases and insect pests, Dendrolimus punctatus and pine wilt disease in Xiangxi Prefecture, and uses the autoregressive and moving average model(ARIMA) and support vector machine(SVM) combined model to predict the occurrence in the next five years. The research results show that the current occurrence data of Dendrolimus punctatus is gradually increasing, and the occurrence of pine wilt disease is gradually increasing;in the future, the occurrence area of Dendrolimus punctatus will continue the trend of periodic outbreaks, and the growth rate of pine wilt disease will increase significantly, and the occurrence area will increase exponentially. The results of this study show that if the existing control capabilities remain unchanged, the two pests and diseases will cause serious losses to the forestry resources of Xiangxi Prefecture in the next few years. Xiangxi Prefecture should strengthen monitoring, quarantine, prevention, and be alert to the outbreak of Dendrolimus punctatus and pine wood disease.