大雾天气下机场能见度预测模型研究

Research on Airport Visibility Forecasting Model in Foggy Weather

能见度是机场航空飞行的重要指标,主要受大雾天气的影响。分析雾天某地机场地面实际观测数据,发现能见度与地面气象观测各因素之间存在非线性关系,选用3种常用非线性函数,建立一元非线性回归模型。然后,拟合得到地面观测各因素与能见度之间的函数关系。随后,选用层次分析法求解地面观测各因素对能见度影响的权重系数。最终建立地面气象观测各因素与能见度之间的多元非线性回归数学模型。经验证,模型计算能见度数据曲线与机场实际观测能见度数据曲线重合度较高,平均相对误差在0.14左右,表明所求模型误差较小,能实现大雾天气下机场能见度预测。

Visibility is an important index of airport flight,mainly affected by foggy weather.By analyzing the ground observation data of an airport in foggy days,it is found that there is a nonlinear relationship between visibility and meteorological observation factors.Then,the function relation between ground observation factors and visibility is obtained by fitting.Then,analytic hierarchy process(AHP)was used to solve the weight coefficient of the influence of ground observation factors on visibility.Finally,a multivariate nonlinear regression mathematical model between surface meteorological observation factors and visibility is established.It has been verified that there is a high degree of coincidence between the visibility data curve calculated by the model and the actual observed visibility data curve of the airport,and the average relative error is about 0.14,which indicates that the error of the proposed model is small and the visibility prediction of the airport can be realized in foggy weather.