中国生鲜乳价格协商机制的有效性研究

Research on the Effectiveness of Price Negotiation Mechanism of Raw Milk in China

在生鲜乳市场化的发展过程中,奶农在利润分配中作为价格的接受者,生产的积极性不高且抗风险能力较弱。河北、上海和山东等地的政府部门为保护奶农的利益,积极构建生鲜乳价格协商机制。研究基于河北省、北京市和山东省等7省(市)地区生鲜乳收购价、奶牛存栏和饲料价格等面板数据,通过双重差分法(DID)将实施协商地区与尚未实施以及实施前的地区作为对照,进行有效性分析。基准回归结果显示,生鲜乳价格协商机制对生鲜乳收购价产生正向显著性影响,具备推广意义。生鲜乳价格协商机制依据“生产成本+合理利润”的定价法确定参考价,通过协商,提前释放政策信号,形成市场预期,改变买卖双方交易博弈,加强双方信息共享。

In the development process of fresh milk marketability,dairy farmers are the recipients of the price in profit distribution,and their enthusiasm for production is not high and their ability to resist risks is weak.In order to protect the interests of dairy farmers,government departments in Hebei,Shanghai and Shandong have actively established a price negotiation mechanism for raw milk.Based on the panel data of the actual purchase price of raw milk,dairy cattle inventory and feed price in seven provinces and cities including Hebei Province,Beijing,Shandong Province,the study carried out effectiveness analysis with the double difference method(DID) by comparing the implementation of the negotiation area with the non-implemented and pre-implemented areas.The benchmark regression results show that the price negotiation mechanism of raw milk has a positive and significant impact on the actual purchase price of raw milk,which is of popularization significance.The raw milk price negotiation mechanism determines the reference price based on the pricing method of "production cost + reasonable profit".Through negotiation,policy signals are released in advance to form market expectations,change the trading game between buyers and sellers,and strengthen information sharing between both parties.