基于VAR模型的大连市港口与城市经济协同发展研究

Study on the relationship between Dalian port logistics and city economy based on VAR model

港口物流与城市经济协同发展是提高港口和城市竞争力的重要途径,是促进社会发展的客观需求。大连港有卓越的自然地理环境,且是东北亚国际航运的中心港口,其发展不仅可以给大连市带来经济效益,更对东北地区有着重要的影响力。根据大连港口物流与城市经济发展的实际情况,构建了VAR模型,选取了大连市2004—2019年港口物流和城市经济的相关指标,定量分析了两者之间的关联性,对大连港口与城市协同发展提出合理的对策建议。

The coordinated development of port logistics and city economy is an important way to improve the competitiveness of ports and cities,and is an objective demand to promote social development.Dalian port has excellent natural geographical environment and is the central port of international shipping in Northeast Asia,its development can not only bring economic benefits to Dalian city,but also play an important influence on Northeast China.This paper firstly constructs a VAR model based on the actual situation of Dalian port logistics and city economic development,secondly selects the relevant indicators of port logistics and city economy in Dalian from 2004—2019,quantitatively analyzes the correlation between them,and finally puts forward reasonable countermeasure suggestions for the synergistic development of Dalian port and city.