近36 a遵义市暴雨洪涝灾害变化特征及成因分析

Analysis on Changing Characteristics and Causes of Rainstorm and Flood Disaster in Zunyi for Recent 36 Years

基于1984-2019年遵义市13个国家气象观测站逐日降水量资料、第一次自然灾害风险普查暴雨洪涝灾害数据,采用线性倾向估计、相关分析、对比分析等方法,分析遵义市暴雨洪涝农作物受灾面积,暴雨和大暴雨的变化特征,以及农作物受灾面积的变化成因。结果表明:遵义市农作物暴雨洪涝受灾面积在1984-1999年呈显著上升趋势,2000-2019年呈显著下降趋势。近36 a暴雨日数及其强度呈波动式微弱增加趋势,大暴雨日数及其强度呈显著减少趋势。大暴雨日数及其强度与受灾面积呈显著正相关。暴雨洪涝灾害发生、发展既受暴雨、大暴雨等气象自然因素影响,也受气象灾害防御工程和灾害天气监测、预报预警水平等社会因素影响。

Based on daily precipitation data of 13 national meteorological observatories from 1984 to 2019,the first natural storm flood disaster risk census data,linear trend estimation,correlation analysis,contrast analysis were used to analyze the area of crops affected by heavy rain and flood in Zunyi city,the change characteristics of heavy rain and torrential rain,and the cause of the change of the area of crops affected by flood.The results show that the area affected by crop rainstorm and flood in Zunyi city showed a significant upward trend from 1984 to 1999,and a significant downward trend from 2000 to 2019.In recent 36 years,the number of heavy rain days and its intensity showed a weak increasing trend,while the number of heavy rain days and its intensity showed a significant decreasing trend.The number of days and intensity of heavy rain were positively correlated with the affected area.The occurrence and development of rainstorm and flood disasters are affected not only by natural meteorological factors such as rainstorm and heavy rainstorm,but also by social factors such as meteorological disaster prevention project and disaster weather monitoring,forecast and early warning level.