泸州市老年人2015-2020年肺癌死亡因素分析与死亡率趋势预测

Analysis of mortality factors and prediction of mortality trend of lung cancer in the elderly in Luzhou city from 2015 to 2020

目的分析泸州市老年人肺癌死亡因素与死亡率变化趋势,为政府制定和完善癌症防控政策提供科学依据。方法采用时间序列分析预测法。使用Excel2017计算泸州市老年人2015年-2020年肺癌死亡率,运用Joinpoint4.8.0.1计算老年人肺癌死亡率年度变化百分比(Annual Percent Change,APC),运用SAS9.4软件建立ARIMA模型预测2021年-2023年老年人肺癌死亡率。结果2015-2020年泸州市老年男性肺癌死亡率从320.42/10万上升至354.89/10万(APC=2.9%,P<0.05),老年女性肺癌死亡率从118.64/10万上升至127.15/10万(APC=-0.7%,P>0.05),总体肺癌死亡率从218.93/10万上升至239.01/10万(APC=2.4%,P<0.05),经ARIMA模型预测2021年-2023年泸州市老年人总体死亡率继续呈上升趋势。结论2021年-2023年泸州市老年人肺癌死亡率继续上升,影响老年肺癌患者死亡率的因素较多,包括人口老龄化、吸烟、早诊早治筛查手段、肺癌病理类型、驱动基因的检测等。若要改变局面,政府及相关部门需针对以上因素采取相应适宜措施。

Objective To analyze and predict the trend of lung cancer mortality among the elderly in Luzhou city,and to provide scientific basis for the government to formulate and improve cancer prevention and control policies.Methods The method of time series analysis and prediction was adopted.Excel 2017 was used to calculate lung cancer mortality rate of the elderly in Luzhou city from 2015 to 2020,and Joinpoint4.8.0.1 was used to calculate the Annual Percent Change(APC)of the lung cancer mortality rate of the elderly,using SAS9.4 software to establish ARIMA model to forecast the mortality rate of lung cancer in the elderly from 2021 to 2023.Results From 2015 to 2020,the lung cancer mortality rate of the elderly male in Luzhou rose from 320.42 per 100000 to 354.89 per 100000(APC=2.9%,P<0.05),and that of the elderly female rose from 118.64%per 100000 to 127.15 per 100000(APC=-0.7%,P>0.05),the overall mortality rate of lung cancer increased from 218.93/100000 to 239.01/100000(APC=2.4%,P<0.05).The ARIMA model predicted that the overall mortality rate of the elderly would continue to increase from 2021 to 2023.Conclusion The mortality rate of lung cancer among the elderly would continue to increase from 2021 to 2023.There were many factors affecting the mortality of elderly patients with lung cancer,including population ageing,smoking,early diagnosis,early treatment and screening methods,pathological types of lung cancer,detection of driver genes,etc.Government should take measures against the above factors to change the situation.