中国城镇住户家庭体育消费研究:经验证据、影响因素与政策意涵

Research on Urban Households’ Sports Consumption in China:Empirical Evidence,Influencing Factors and Policy Implications

基于国家统计局主导的中国城镇住户调查中161个县市超过15万户微观家庭的体育消费大数据,参照已有文献中的理论研究与实证模型,对影响我国城镇家庭体育消费水平和消费结构的关键因素进行识别,并结合我国家庭体育消费的特点甄别合适的理论分析框架以及实证分析工具。研究发现:1)家庭体育类消费品的收入弹性大于1,属于典型的高档消费品;2)发现体育消费的时间替代效应在我国同样成立的证据,证明了贝克尔家庭生产理论的解释能力;3)从模型估计方法角度,Tobit模型和Heckman模型可能是比Hurdle模型更合适的实证估计工具。

This study identifies the key influence factors of urban households’ sports consumption in China through reviewing the existing theoretical studies and empirical models, based on the big data of sports consumption of more than 150 thousands observations of the urban households from 161 cities/counties in Urban Household Survey which collected by the National Bureau of Statistics. And combined with the characteristics of Chinese households’ sports consumption to identify the appropriate theoretical analysis framework and empirical analysis tools.It suggests that: 1) The income elasticity of household sports consumer goods is greater than 1,which is a typical type of luxury goods;2) the time substitution effect of sports consumption is valid in China, which also proves the powerful explanatory power of Becker’s theory;3) from the perspective of empirical methods, the Tobit model and Heckman model may be more suitable than the Hurdle model for empirical estimation.