基于改进FMECA-FBN和ER的铝矾土海运物流风险评估

Risk Assessment of Bauxite Maritime Logistics Based on Improved FMECA-FBN and ER

针对传统失效模式影响与危害性分析(FMECA)在风险评估中存在的诸多局限性,提出一种基于改进FMECA、模糊贝叶斯网络(FBN)和证据推理(ER)相结合的铝矾土海运物流风险评估模型。采用新的风险表征参数,通过将模糊集理论与专家知识相结合创建基于置信结构的模糊规则库系统,并利用贝叶斯网络推理技术实现对铝钒土海运物流失效模式危害度的重要性排序;而基于权值分配和矩阵分析的改进ER可有效融合失效模式评估结果,实现从整体角度对铝钒土海运物流系统进行风险评估;最后通过对我国进口铝矾土海运物流进行风险评估来验证模型的有效性与可行性。结果表明:我国进口铝矾土海运物流环节中最重要的风险因素是“海盗或恐怖主义袭击”和“工人暴动或罢工”,系统整体处于中高风险水平,该评估结果与实际情况相符,从而验证了模型的有效性和可靠性。该研究结果可为工程领域建立与完善系统性的风险评估模型与框架提供依据。

In view of the many limitations of traditional Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis(FMECA),we propose a risk assessment model that combines the improved FMECA,Fuzzy Bayesian Networks(FBN),and improved Evidence Reasoning(ER).In the model, we adopt new risk characterization parameters, combine fuzzy set theory and experts knowledge to create a fuzzy rule base system based on confidence structure, and use BN reasoning technology to realize the importance ranking of the hazard degree of maritime logistics failure mode.The improved ER based on weight distribution and matrix analysis can effectively integrate the results of failure mode assessment and realize the risk evaluation of the baaxite maritime logistics system from the overall perspective.In order to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the model, we carry out a risk assessment on the maritime system of importing bauxite to China.Here are the results: the priority of risk factors in the baaxite maritime logistics of bauxite is “pirates or terrorist attacks” and “workers’ riots or strikes” in sequence;China’s imported bauxite maritime logistics system as a whole is at a medium and high rik level, and the effectiveness and reliability of the model have been verified.The results are expected to provide basis for establishing and improving the systematic risk assessment model and framework for the marine engineering field.