一类基于概率语言EDAS的危化品道路运输路径决策方法

Hazardous Chemical Road Transportation Route Decision Method Based on Probabilistic Language EDAS

为科学解决危化品道路运输路径的决策问题,从成本因素、时间因素、道路因素、环境因素、应急能力因素5个维度出发,构建了基于概率语言平均解距离评价(EDAS)法的危化品道路运输路径决策模型。该决策模型在考虑专家评价信息贡献度的基础上,聚合了专家的概率语言评价信息;利用博弈论组合赋权法对概率语言连乘层次分析(PL-MAHP)法和考虑灰色关联偏离度最小且熵值最大的评价指标权重多目标优化模型确定的评价指标主、客观权重进行集成优化;通过语言有序加权平均(LOWA)算子和概率语言可能度公式对EDAS法进行改进,从而确定危化品道路运输最优路径。以现有文献中的危化品道路运输案例为例,检验该决策模型的有效性,结果表明:该决策模型充分考虑了专家犹豫性、单一赋权法的局限性和评价信息的遗漏失真对于决策结果的影响,且应用该决策模型得到的最优路径与实际情景相符。

In order to solve the decision-making problem of hazardous chemical road transportation route scientifically,this paper constructs a decision-making model of hazardous chemical road transportation route based on probabilistic language Evaluation based on Distance from Average Solution(EDAS)from five dimensions of cost factor,time factor,road factor,environment factor and emergency capacity.By aggregating the expert probabilistic linguistic evaluation information based on the degree of information contribution and in combination with the weighting method in the game theory,this paper carries out the combination optimization of the subjective and objective weights of the evaluation indexes determined by PL-MAHP and the weight multi-objectives optimization model considering the minimum deviation of grey relational degree and the maximum entropy.Then the paper uses Linguistic Ordered Weighted Averagng(LOWA)operator and probabilistic linguistic probability degree formula to improve EDAS method,so as to determine the optimal route of hazardous chemical road transportation.Finally,the paper verifies the effectiveness of the decision model by taking the case of road transportation of hazardous chemicals in the existing literature as an example.The results show that the model fully considers the influence of expert hesitancy,the limitation of single weighting method and evaluation information distortion on decision-making results,and the optimal route obtained by applying the model is consistent with the actual situation.