LUCC影响下太原市生态系统碳储量时空变化及预测

Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Taiyuan Ecosystem under the Influence of LUCC

土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)与生态系统碳储量的变化密切相关,研究土地覆盖类型变化对生态系统碳储量的影响,对区域生态系统保护和社会经济可持续发展具有重要的意义。针对城市快速扩张背景下土地覆盖类型变化导致城市生态系统固碳能力的变化,基于遥感解译的太原市2000年、2010年和2020年3期土地覆盖类型数据,利用CA-Markov模型和Logistic回归模型并耦合InVEST模型,反演2000—2020年太原市土地覆盖类型和生态系统碳储量的时空变化特征,并对LUCC影响下太原市2030年生态系统碳储量进行模拟预测及分析。结果表明:太原市土地覆盖类型变化特征表现为耕地的减少以及人造地表的快速扩张;2000—2020年间,太原市生态系统碳储量累计减少254.18×10^(4)t,降幅为2.6%,呈持续下降趋势;根据预测结果,太原市2030年生态系统碳储量较2020年减少187.25×10^(4)t,其中主城区生态系统碳储量减少了152.33×10^(4)t。该研究结果明确了土地覆盖类型变化对区域生态系统碳储量的影响,可为太原市未来土地利用规划和生态系统可持续发展提供依据。

Land use/cover change(LUCC)is closely related to changes of carbon storage in ecosystem.Studying the impact of land type changes on carbon storage in ecosystem is of great significance to the protection of regional ecosystem and the sustainable development of the social economy.Aiming at the changes of carbon sequestration ability of urban ecosystem due to changes in land cover type under the background of rapid urban expansion,this study uses CA-Markov and logistic regression model coupled with Invest model to inverse the temporal and spatial change characteristics of land cover and carbon storage in Taiyuan from 2000 to 2020 based on the interpreted land cover data in 2000,2010,and 2020.In addition,the study also simulates,predicts,and analyzes the carbon reserves of Taiyuan in 2030 under the influence of LUCC.The results show that the change characteristics of land cover types in Taiyuan are reduced cultivated land and the rapid expansion of artificial surface.From 2000 to 2020,the total carbon storage decreased by 254.18×10^(4)ton,a decline of 2.6%,showing a continuous downward trend.According to the forecast results,compared with 2020,the carbon storage of Taiyuan City in 2030 will be reduced by 187.25×10^(4)ton,and the carbon storage of the main urban area will be reduced by 152.33×10^(4)ton.The prediction results clarify the impact of changes in land cover type on regional carbon storage,which can provide references for future land use planning and ecologically sustainable development in Taiyuan.