信贷约束、数字金融与居民消费

Credit Constraint,Digital Finance and Resident Consumption

提升居民消费水平是加快构建“双循环”新发展格局的战略基点。数字金融作为数字技术与传统金融相互融合与相互渗透的新型金融模式,对缓解居民信贷约束、提升居民消费水平具有重要影响。首先构建了信贷约束条件下数字金融影响居民消费的理论框架,揭示了信贷约束与数字金融对居民消费行为影响的内在机制;其次以省份为纽带将微观2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据和宏观2019年《中国统计年鉴》数据相对接,采用分层线性模型,实证检验了信贷约束与数字金融对居民消费的影响及异质性。研究结果表明:信贷约束对居民消费具有显著的抑制效应,其中对城镇家庭、中低收入家庭以及教育程度较低家庭的抑制效应尤为明显。同时,居民消费差异的17.26%是由于数字金融等宏观特征的地区差异造成的,数字金融不仅可以有效提升家庭的平均消费,还能通过缓解信贷约束间接促进居民消费的提升,其中对农村家庭、中低收入家庭以及教育程度较高家庭的影响更加突出。此外,无论是信贷约束还是数字金融,主要影响的是居民的发展型和享受型消费,对生存型消费的影响效果甚微。鉴于此,政府应加快数字金融的发展进程,努力弥合地区及城乡的数字鸿沟,发挥数字金融的可得性和普惠性,降低居民的信贷约束,最终实现居民消费水平的全面提升。

In the current severe domestic and international environment,improving residents’consumption level is the strategic base point for accelerating the construction of a new development pattern with domestic and international double circulation,with domestic and international circulation as the main body.Digital finance,as a new financial model with digital technology and traditional finance integrating and infiltrating each other,may have an important impact on easing residents’credit constraints and improving residents’consumption level.Firstly,digital finance,credit constraint and resident consumption are included into the same analytical framework,which theoretically reveals the internal mechanism of how credit constraint and digital finance affect resident consumption behavior;Secondly,with provinces as the link,the micro data of China’s household tracking survey in 2018 and the macro data of China’s statistical yearbook in 2019 are connected,and the hierarchical linear model is used to empirically test the impact of credit constraints and digital finance on household consumption and the heterogeneity characteristics.The results show that:(1)Credit constraints have a significant inhibitory effect on residents’consumption,that is,the more serious the credit constraints faced by residents,the lower the consumption level of residents.(2)About 17.26%of the difference in residents’consumption is caused by regional differences in macro characteristics,such as the development level of digital finance.However,the rapid development of digital finance can not only directly improve the average consumption of households,but also indirectly promote the increase of residents’consumption by easing credit constraints.(3)As far as the inhibition effect of credit constraints on residents’consumption is concerned,it is particularly evident in urban households,low-and middle-income households and households with lower education levels.As far as the impact of digital finance on residents’consumption is concerned,it is more prominent in rural households,low-and middle-income households and households with higher education levels.(4)Whether it is credit constraint or digital finance,it mainly plays a role in residents’development and enjoyment consumption,but has little impact on residents’survival consumption.According to the above research conclusions,the government should speed up the development process of digital finance,strive to bridge the digital gap of different regions,also the urban and rural areas,give full play to the availability and inclusiveness of digital finance,reduce the credit constraints of residents,and finally achieve the overall improvement of residents’consumption level.