原油价格预测:近30年研究回顾和未来展望

Crude Oil Price Forecasting: A 30-Year Literature Review and Future Directions

原油价格预测是能源经济和资产定价领域的重要研究方向,其研究热度正逐年上升。系统梳理了30多年来原油价格预测领域的相关文献,从以下4个方面进行了现有文献的综述与讨论:(1)原油价格预测对象;(2)原油价格的影响因素、预测变量和理论基础;(3)原油价格预测方法与模型;(4)原油价格预测的实践意义。最后,结合当前热点和未来发展趋势给出值得进一步研究的方向:一是使用气候风险等新的预测信息;二是充分利用多源异构数据;三是提高机器学习等预测模型的可解释性。

Forecasting crude oil prices is an important research direction in the field of energy economics and asset pricing, and the interest in this topic is increasing year by year. This paper systematically reviews the related literature on crude oil price forecasting over the past 30 years. Specifically, we review and discuss the existing literature from the following four aspects:(1) the forecast target of crude oil prices;(2) the influence factors, predictive variables, and theoretical basis of crude oil prices;(3) the forecasting methods and models of crude oil prices;(4) the practical implications of crude oil price forecasting. Finally, according to current hotspots and future development trends, this paper provides three directions worthy of further research: first, using new forecasting information from climate risk;second, making full use of multi-source heterogeneous data;third, improving the interpretability of machine learning approaches.