黄河流域产业结构升级的就业效应研究

A Study of the Employment Effects of Industrial Structure Upgrading in the Yellow River Basin

产业结构升级是黄河流域的高质量发展的必然要求,然而产业结构升级将带动劳动力就业的变化。基于2005—2020年黄河流域9省面板数据分析发现:(1)黄河流域第一产业产值的增加挤出了部分就业,第二、三产业对劳动力有较强吸引力;但第三产业近十年的就业促进作用提升幅度较小;(2)黄河流域三次产业结构偏离度逐年下降,产业结构与就业结构的关系趋于平衡;(3)黄河流域的产业结构升级存在就业促进效应,但存在区域异质性,中下游地区产业结构升级显著正向影响就业,中上游地区影响不显著。建议采取财政政策“区位定向诱导”、吸引搭配各类产业人才等措施,促进黄河流域就业增长及就业质量提升。

The upgrading of industrial structure drives the change in employment.However,existing researches on this issue from the perspective of the Yellow River Basin are quite limited.By analyzing the panel data of 9 provinces and autonomous regions in the Yellow River Basin from 2005 to 2018,this paper finds that:(1)The increase of the output value of the primary industry in the Yellow River Basin crowns out some employment,and the second and third industries,especially the third industry,have a strong ability to absorb labor force,but the promotion of employment is not obvious in the past decade.(2)The deviation degree of the three industrial structures in the Yellow River Basin is decreasing year by year.The relationship between the industrial structure and employment structure tends to be balanced.(3)The empirical results based on the systematic GMM method show that the overall industrial structure upgrading in the upper Yellow River Basin has an employment promotion effect,but there is spatial heterogeneity.The upgrading of industrial structure in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin has a significantly positive impact on employment,while the impact in the middle and upper reaches is not significant.The paper suggests that measures such as“location-oriented”fiscal policies and attraction of suitable talents from various industries be taken to promote employment growth and employment quality in the Yellow River Basin.