基于半不变量法概率潮流的光伏配电网风险评估

Risk Assessment of Photovoltaic Distribution Network Based on Probabilistic Power Flow With Cumulant Method

为了高效准确实现光伏配电网越限风险评估,引入自适应核密度估计法拟合实际的光照强度序列,建立光伏电站出力特性概率分布模型。采用Cornish-Fisher级数结合半不变量法实现对光伏配电网的概率潮流计算,通过蒙特卡罗法验证半不变量概率潮流计算的准确性,建立电压越限风险指标和支路潮流越限风险指标实现对光伏配电网评估。通过Matlab仿真验证算法对光伏配电网系统风险评估的准确性和高效性。

In order to efficiently and accurately evaluate the out of limit risk of photovoltaic power distribution network,the adaptive kernel density estimation(Akde)method is introduced to fit the actual light intensity sequence,and the probability distribution model of photovoltaic power station output characteristics is established.The Cornish-Fisher series combined with the cumulant method(CM)is used to calculate the probabilistic power flow of photovoltaic distribution network,the accuracy of probabilistic power flow calculation(PPFC)is verified by Monte Carlo Method(MCM),the system level voltage out of limit risk index(VOLRI)and branch power flow out of limit risk index(BPFOLRI)are established.MATLAB is used to verify the accuracy and efficiency of the algorithm for photovoltaic distribution network risk assessment.