中国对外贸易韧性测度与影响因素研究

Measurement and Influencing Factors of China’s Foreign Trade Resilience

文章通过构建对外贸易韧性综合指标体系,运用核密度估计、Theil指数及分解,对2010—2019年我国31个省、自治区、直辖市对外贸易情况进行综合测度和区域空间分析,并结合地理探测器模型对主要影响因子进行科学识别,得出如下结论:我国对外贸易韧性总体呈上升趋势,但区域差异明显,呈东高西低态势;对外贸易韧性总体、区域内、区域间差异不断缩小,不均衡性主要由区域内差异造成;主要影响因素包括政府、市场、数字贸易、科技教育、结构等五个方面;各影响因素交互项在2010—2019年作用力明显提升,但跨境电商的交互影响力却在减弱。

This paper constructs a comprehensive index of trade resilience,uses Kernel Density estimation,Theil index and decomposition to conduct comprehensive measurement and regional spatial analysis of 31 provinces,autonous regions and municipalities in China from 2010 to 2019,and scientifically identifies the main influencing factors based on Geographic Detector Model.The following conclusions are drawn:the overall trend of China’s trade resilience is on the rise,but the regional differences are obvious,showing a trend of high in the east and low in the west.The overall,inter-regional differences in foreign trade resilience have been shrinking,and the imbalance is mainly caused by intra-regional differences.The main influencing factors include government,market,digital trade,science and technology education and structure.The interaction of various influencing factors increased significantly from 2010 to 2019,but the interaction influence of cross-border e-commerce weakened.