闸室危险货物船舶事故应急能力评估模型及应用

Emergency capacity assessment model and application for ships accident of dangerous chemicals in lock chamber

为提升船闸闸室载运危险货物船舶事故应急能力,基于情景-任务-能力分析方法,结合应急管理的4个阶段,构建由4个一级指标、27个二级指标和272个评估项构成的应急能力评估指标体系。借鉴国际安全评级思想,设置5种评估方法。综合考虑静态评估和动态评估相结合的评估方式,以专家打分结果为数据样本,采用层次分析法计算评估指标权重、量化评分结果,并确定分级划分标准。最后将其应用至某船闸开展应急能力评估,结果表明,其各阶段应急能力整体处于中等至优秀水平,相关评估模型具有较强的实用性和可操作性。

In order to improve the emergency response capability of the lock chamber carrying dangerous goods vessels,an emergency response capability assessment index system consisting of 4 primary indicators,27 secondary indicators and 272 assessment items was constructed based on the scenario-task-capability analysis method,combined with the four stages of emergency management. Five assessment methods were set up based on international safety rating ideas.Considering the combination of static and dynamic assessment,the assessment model used expert scoring results as data samples,adopted hierarchical analysis to calculate the weight of assessment indexes,quantified the scoring results,and determined the grading classification criteria. Finally,it was applied to a ship lock to carry out emergency response capacity assessment,and the results showed that its overall emergency response capacity in all stages was at a medium to excellent level,and the relevant assessment model had strong practicality and operability.