长江经济带“两山”实践成效测度及其时空演替

Measurement of the Effectiveness of“Two Mountains”Practices and Its Spatial-temporal Pattern in the Changjiang River Economic Zone

基于“两山”理论,从内生式发展的视角,结合压力—状态—响应(PSR)模型框架,构建了“两山”实践成效评价指标体系,测度了长江经济带11省市2006—2019年“绿水青山”“金山银山”和“两山”协同发展系数,并进一步运用耦合协调模型计算了“两山”指数。同时引入空间自相关方法,对长江经济带“两山”指数的空间差异特征进行了实证分析。结果表明:①长江经济带“绿水青山”指数和“金山银山”指数均呈逐年上升趋势,“绿水青山”指数高的省市,其“金山银山”指数较低;②各省市“两山”指数在时间上整体呈上升趋势,可以分为两个阶段:2006—2012年为基本协调阶段,2013—2019年为中度协调阶段;③各省市“两山”指数在空间分布上呈显著的空间正相关,且大多数省市趋向于“高—高”集聚和“低—低”集聚;④基于“两山”协同发展系数分布情况,将长江经济带11省市的“两山”实践现状划分为“两山”同步发展型、“金山银山”领先型和“绿水青山”领先型3种类型。

Based on the‘Two Mountains’theory,from the perspective of endogenous development,combined with the Pressure-State-Response(PSR)model,this paper constructed index system for evaluating the effectiveness of the‘Two Mountains’practice.This paper used the index system to measure the‘Lucid Waters and Lush Mountains’(LWLM),‘Gold and Silver Mountains’(GSM)and‘Two Mountains’(TM)index of 11 provinces and cities in the Changjiang River Economic Belt from 2006 to 2019.This paper used the coupling coordination model to calculate the TM index.The spatial autocorrelation method was also introduced to analyze the spatial difference of the TM index in 11 provinces and cities of the Changjiang River Economic Belt.The results showed that:①The LWLM index and GSM index of the Changjiang River Economic Belt showed an upward trend year by year.The provinces and cities with high GSM index had a lower LWLM index.②The TM index of the Changjiang River Economic Belt showed an upward trend through time,which could be divided into two stages:the basic coordination stage(2006-2012)and the moderate coordination stage(2013-2019).③The TM imdex presented a positive significant spatial autocorrelation,and most regions showed the spatial correlation of high-high clustering and low-low clustering.④Based on the relative development index of TM,this paper divided the practice status of‘Two Mountains’in 11 provinces and cities into three types:Synchronous development type of TM,GM leading type and LM leading type.