常态化防控期新冠疫情传播特征及因应对策:以扬州市为例

Transmission Characteristics and Epidemic Prevention Countermeasures of COVID-19 in Yangzhou City During the Period of Regular Prevention and Control

2021年“德尔塔”变异株病毒在国内引起了新一轮的疫情爆发,使新冠再次成为社会关注的焦点。为厘清常态化疫情防控背景下“德尔塔”病毒在城市的传播规律,以2021年7月28日起扬州市爆发的新一轮疫情为研究对象,基于568例新冠确诊病例的流行病学资料,运用统计分析、最近邻指数分析、核密度分析以及有效再生数估计等理论方法,对疫情的时空分布和流行特征进行分析,讨论引发此次扬州疫情的客观因素。结果表明:此次新冠病毒传播具有显著的空间集聚特征,能够快速抑制疫情的发展得益于深度的流行病学调查以及高质量的隔离措施;人的行为特征直接影响此次扬州疫情的早期发展趋势,而扬州市的深度老龄化现状则是造成防疫困难的深层次原因。可以为城市常态化疫情防控提供参考依据。

In 2021,the Delta mutant virus caused a new round of COVID-19 outbreaks in China,making COVID-19 become the focus of social attention again.To clarify the law of the spread of Delta virus in cities,taking the new round of epidemic outbreak in Yangzhou since July 28th,2021 as the research object,based on the epidemiological data of 568 confirmed cases of COVID-19,using the theoretical methods of statistical analysis,nearest neighbor index analysis,nuclear density analysis,and effective reproduction number estimation,the temporal and spatial distribution,and epidemic characteristics of the epidemic were analyzed,and the objective factors causing the epidemic in Yangzhou were discussed.The results show that the spread of COVID-19 in this round has significant spatial agglomeration characteristics,and the rapid containment of the epidemic benefits from in-depth epidemiological investigation and high-quality isolation measures.The characteristics of human behavior directly affected the early development trend of the epidemic in Yangzhou,and the current situation of deep aging in Yangzhou is the deep-seated reason for its difficulties in epidemic prevention.The countermeasures and suggestions based on the result analysis can provide a reference for urban normalized epidemic prevention and control.