日本“印太战略”的演变逻辑

Logic of Evolution Behind Japan’s“Indo⁃Pacific Strategy”

日本最早明确提出“印太战略”,并积极将“印太”概念和“印太战略”理念推销给特朗普政府。在推动美国接受“印太战略”的同时,日本不断完善和调整本国的“印太战略”,使之呈现出较为明显的阶段性。这些阶段体现了日本在制定和实施其亚太地区对外战略方面的发展过程,是日本决策层在不同时期对日本所处的国际体系地位及内外环境的认知结果。中日美之间的“复合结构性矛盾”为安倍政府出台和调整“印太战略”的主导变量,“安倍主义”是其中介变量。同时,二战后的历史、中日美实力地位变动和日美同盟关系等因素,决定了日本制定针对中国的战略的机理,这使该分析框架可以细化为几个具体的分析维度,从中日美实力对比、中美的战略意图以及中日美互动关系的角度分解中日美之间的“复合结构性矛盾”,并通过分析日本决策层对上述因素的认知体现“安倍主义”的中介作用。鉴于中日美“复合结构性矛盾”这一主导因素不会改变,且美国采取对华强硬和对日缓和的策略,日本针对中国的“印太战略”不会根本废止,但很可能根据大国关系的变化调整“印太战略”的具体目标和实施策略。

Japan,the first country to clearly put forward the“Indo⁃Pacific strategy,”actively sells the concept of“Indo⁃Pacific”and“Indo⁃Pacific strategy”to the US Trump administration.While persuading the US to accept the idea of the“Indo⁃Pacific strategy,”Japan has constantly improved and adjusted its own“Indo⁃Pacific strategy,”which evolves in stages.The stages are the result of Japanese decision⁃makers’outlook on Japan’s status in the international system and its environment at home and abroad in different periods,reflecting the process in which Japan formulated and implemented its foreign strategy in the Indo⁃Pacific region.The“compound structural tensions”between China,Japan and the US is the dominant variable of the Abe Administration’s introduction and adjustment of“Indo⁃Pacific strategy,”and“Abe doctrine”is its intermediary variable.At the same time,such factors as the history,the changes in the balance of power structures of China,Japan and the US,and the Japan⁃US Alliance since World War II determine the mechanism of Japan’s strategy towards China,which help to subdivide the analysis framework into several dimensions.This paper dissects the“compound structural tensions”between China,Japan and the US from the following perspectives:the strength comparison between the three states,the strategic intention of China and the US,and the interactive relationship between the three.It further analyzes the intermediary role of the“Abe doctrine”through a review of the Japanese decision⁃makers’outlook on the above factors.In view of the fact that the dominant factor of the“compound structural tension”will not change,and the present US government will adopt hard policies towards China and soft ones towards Japan,Japan’s“Indo⁃Pacific strategy”targeting at China will not be abrogated at all.However,Japan is likely to adjust the specific objectives and operation policies of the strategy according to the changes in the relations among the three major countries.