柳杉潜在适生区预测及气候变化对其分布的影响

Potentially Suitable Area of Cryptomeria japonica var.sinensis and the Influence of Climate Changes on Its Distribution

气候变化对物种的生长和分布有深刻影响,探究物种当前分布范围及限制其分布的主导环境变量,对生物多样性保护具有重要意义。基于柳杉80个现有种群的分布点以及气候和地形两类环境变量,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)模拟不同气候情景下柳杉在我国的潜在适生区,分析影响其分布的主导环境变量,掌握不同时期的质心转移方向。结果表明,降水是影响柳杉分布的主导环境变量。自末次盛冰期(LGM)以来,柳杉在我国的分布面积逐渐缩减;随着未来气候变暖,其缩减程度进一步加剧,而该物种亦将向西或北迁移以降低温度的影响。结果明晰了柳杉种群的适生区范围,对其遗传资源保护和引种具有重要的参考价值。

Climate change has profound effects on the growth and distribution of the plant species,and it is important for biodiversity conservation to explore the current distribution of species and the dominant environmental variables limiting their distributions.In this study,we simulated the suitable distribution area of Cryptomeria japonica var.sinensis in China under different climate scenarios,investigated the dominant environmental variables affecting its distribution,and grasped the direction of centroid in different periods.A total of 80 occurrences were used as presences data and two types of environmental variables(climate and topography)were used to calibrate the models.The results showed that the dominant environmental variable affecting the distribution of C.japonica var.sinensis was the precipitation.The distribution area of C.japonica var.sinensis had gradually reduced in China since the last glacial maximum(LGM).In the future,under global warming,the reduction of its area will be more significant,and the species will move west or north to reduce the influence of temperature.Our results help to understand the potential response of C.japonica var.sinensis to climatic changes and provide an important reference for the protection and introduction of its genetic resources.