2001-2100年黄土高原植被变化的土壤保持功能时空演变

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Soil Conservation Function of Vegetation Change on the Loess Plateau from 2001 to 2100

基于LPJ-GUESS模型模拟分析2001—2100年黄土高原植被变化的土壤保持功能的时空演变及变化趋势,以期为该区制定适应气候变化的植被管理与侵蚀防治策略提供依据。结果表明:(1)2001—2100年黄土高原的土壤保持功能整体呈现“东南高、西北低”的分布特征。(2)2001—2020年黄土高原西部高海拔地区、东部五台山地区及西北部地区的土壤保持功能显著上升,SSP119情景下西部祁连山脉地区显著上升,中部少部分地区显著下降,SSP585情景下北部大部分地区显著上升。(3)2001—2020年黄土高原中部地区的土壤保持功能显著突变,SSP119情景下中南部及西部地区显著突变,SSP585情景下除南部以外的大部分地区显著突变。西部高海拔地区植被所带来的土壤保持功能下降,应该加强这部分地区的植被管理,比如科学种植适宜的植被。动态植被模型可以刻画气候变化下植被结构的动态变化,使土壤保持功能模拟得更精确,可采取类似LPJ-GUESS这样的动态植被模型在全球其他地区开展相应的研究。

Based on the LPJ-GUESS model, the temporal and spatial evolution and trend of soil conservation function of vegetation change on the Loess Plateau during 2001—2100 were simulated and analyzed, in order to provide a basis for the development of vegetation management and erosion control strategies adapted to climate change on the loess Plateau. The results showed that:(1) From 2001 to 2100, the soil conservation function of the Loess Plateau showed the distribution characteristics of “high in the southeast and low in the northwest”.(2) From 2001 to 2020, the soil conservation function of the western high-altitude area, and that of the eastern Wutai Mountain Area and the northwest area of the Loess Plateau increased significantly. Under the SSP119 scenario, soil conservation function of the Qilian Mountains of the western area increased significantly, while that of a small part of the central region decreased significantly. Under the SSP585 scenario, the soil conservation function of most areas in the north part increased significantly.(3) From 2001 to 2020, the soil conservation function of the central part of the Loess Plateau had a significant mutation. It had a significant mutation in central south and western China under the SSP119 scenario. Under the SSP585 scenario, the soil conservation function of most areas except the south area had significant mutations. The soil conservation function declined in western high-altitude areas caused by vegetation, therefore, the vegetation management in these areas should be strengthened, such as scientific planting of appropriate vegetation. The dynamic vegetation model could describe the dynamic change of vegetation structure under climate change and made the simulation of soil conservation function more accurate. The dynamic vegetation model such as LPJ-GUESS model could be used to carry out corresponding research in other parts of the world.